Potentially Bad News for Snow Lovers in Our Area

YOUNG HARRIS, Ga. — Residents of Western North Carolina and northern Georgia should prepare for a winter that is more likely to be warmer and drier than normal, federal and regional climate forecasters said this month, a pattern driven in part by a return of La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific.

The Climate Prediction Center, part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, issued seasonal outlook maps in mid-October that favor above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation across much of the southern tier of the United States — a region that includes the southern Appalachians. The outlook reflects model guidance showing a weak La Niña persisting through at least the early winter months, which typically shifts the storm track and reduces the frequency of cold, moisture-rich systems in the Southeast.

Local forecasters said the outlook means the usual upslope of mountain snow and sustained wintry conditions will probably be less frequent than in an average winter, though isolated cold snaps and mountain snowstorms remain possible. “Snow lovers in Western North Carolina may be a little disappointed,” a regional report said after NOAA released its maps, noting that Asheville and surrounding areas are favored to see warmer-and-drier-than-average conditions for December through February. Officials warned, however, that climate outlooks describe probabilities over three months and cannot rule out individual storms.

State and university climate specialists say La Niña is only one factor among several that affect Appalachian winter weather. Pam Knox of the University of Georgia’s climate extension noted the models largely agree that a La Niña signal should bias the Southeast toward warmer, drier conditions this winter, but local weather can still bring periods of cold and precipitation — particularly in the high country where elevation often overrides broader regional trends.

The forecast has practical implications for communities and sectors across the region. Transportation and road crews in mountain counties often prepare for heavy snowfall and icy conditions; a drier winter could reduce the number of major plowing events and salt use but would not eliminate the need for readiness during any abrupt cold snap. Agricultural advisers and water managers watch seasonal precipitation outlooks for drought risk; a drier winter can exacerbate already low soil moisture and stress on reservoirs and streams.

Forecasters urge caution in interpreting seasonal outlooks. The CPC outlook deals in probabilities across December through February and is not a day-to-day weather forecast. Even in winters that trend warmer overall, the southern Appalachians can still see significant mountain snow during individual storms — and residents should monitor local National Weather Service forecasts for storm-specific warnings.